forecasting

Forecasting Learning outcome:

Carry out very brief social and practical exchanges, with enough vocabulary to make an exhibition or have a simple conversation about technical topics in Forecasting

1. Make a prognostic simulation of the demand for the product or service according to your training project. Please note the following items:1.

 a. Name of the company

warehouse segurcol

b. Main business area

Company dedicated to the provision of services

c. Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1. Uses

Used to predict the demand forecast of the services and products offered, in order to improve the flow of information and prepare an adequate inventory.

Our company uses techniques of forecast and demand of the product, for the quantity of services to be dispatched and to satisfy the demand of the same product

2. Elements

Calculation of applications every month

3. Time horizon

Time horizon In the company is a short-term and medium-term forecast for the market trends.

4. Model

Use the method of time series, purchases and deliveries to predict the sales of the company and discover trends of customers.

5. Data collection

Historical data from previous months is used to forecast future deliveries, sales and purchases and to balance the demand for the product

6. Doing

According to forecasts, the behavior of demand is verified.

7. Validation and Implementation

The forecasts are made monthly, quarterly and annually to evaluate the model, the behaviors of the data

2. Graph the forecast and write down the trends that your product or service will have in the short, medium and long term.

		YEAR 1	YEAR 2	YEAR 3	YEAR 4	YEAR 5 PROMEDIO
1	JANUARY	33	37	43	50	183
2	FEBRUARY	12	43	45	126	183
3	MARCH	11	22	122	234	183
4	APRIL	5	12	23	87	183
5	MAY	12	34	43	231	183
6	JUNE	12	23	43	143	183
7	JULY	32	43	43	321	183
8	AUGUST	32	32	43	122	183
9	SEPTEMBER	32	45	65	540	183
10	OCTUBER	34	43	76	123	183
11	NOVEMBER	43	54	54	123	183
12	DECEMBER	21	34	43	90	183
		279	422	643	2190	2196
PROMEDI		23,25	35,1666667	53,5833333

			PPM N=3
	YEARS	NET SALES	Ft
	1	279
	2	422
	3	643
	4	2190	448
	PRONOSTICO 5		1085