forecasting

Forecasting Learning outcome:

Carry out very brief social and practical exchanges, with enough vocabulary to make an exhibition or have a simple conversation about technical topics in Forecasting

1. Make a prognostic simulation of the demand for the product or service according to your training project. Please note the following items:1.

 a. Name of the company

warehouse segurcol

b. Main business area

Company dedicated to the provision of services

c. Seven steps to make a forecasting system:

1. Uses

Used to predict the demand forecast of the services and products offered, in order to improve the flow of information and prepare an adequate inventory.

Our company uses techniques of forecast and demand of the product, for the quantity of services to be dispatched and to satisfy the demand of the same product

2. Elements

Calculation of applications every month

3. Time horizon

Time horizon In the company is a short-term and medium-term forecast for the market trends.

4. Model

Use the method of time series, purchases and deliveries to predict the sales of the company and discover trends of customers.

5. Data collection

Historical data from previous months is used to forecast future deliveries, sales and purchases and to balance the demand for the product

6. Doing

According to forecasts, the behavior of demand is verified.

7. Validation and Implementation

The forecasts are made monthly, quarterly and annually to evaluate the model, the behaviors of the data

2. Graph the forecast and write down the trends that your product or service will have in the short, medium and long term.

		YEAR 1	YEAR 2	YEAR 3	YEAR 4	YEAR 5 PROMEDIO
1	JANUARY	33	37	43	50	183
2	FEBRUARY	12	43	45	126	183
3	MARCH	11	22	122	234	183
4	APRIL	5	12	23	87	183
5	MAY	12	34	43	231	183
6	JUNE	12	23	43	143	183
7	JULY	32	43	43	321	183
8	AUGUST	32	32	43	122	183
9	SEPTEMBER	32	45	65	540	183
10	OCTUBER	34	43	76	123	183
11	NOVEMBER	43	54	54	123	183
12	DECEMBER	21	34	43	90	183
		279	422	643	2190	2196
PROMEDI		23,25	35,1666667	53,5833333

			PPM N=3
	YEARS	NET SALES	Ft
	1	279
	2	422
	3	643
	4	2190	448
	PRONOSTICO 5		1085

PLAN OF IMPROVEMENT IN ATTENTION, DISTRIBUTION AND QUALITY CONTROL IN THE WAREHOUSE OF THE COMPANY SEGURCOL LTDA.

                            

         

MISSION.

With the plan of improvement of attention, distribution and quality control of the store of security, we will offer to our internal and external users a better quality in our services offered, as it is a better attention to the client, excellent distribution of goods like garments of Endowment and demand our customers a better quality.

As a security company we are sure that we will be able to give customers the best services that fit their needs, that are of their total pleasure and high durability.

DESCRIPTION OF THE COMPANY

Segurcol is a company for which I work for six years and is dedicated to the sale of private security services (watchmen, escorts, supervisors.)

Founded in 1972 by Mr. LUIS CARLOS PARRA.

This business group has approximately 3,000 employees and has more than 150 clients nationwide.

In this company are several logistical failures especially in the area of ​​warehouse and logistics services which is where I will focus to get this improvement project forward.

In a company where there is a fairly large logistics network that involves suppliers, warehouse area, vendors, logistics and supply area, operations area, internal and external customers will find many alternatives for improvement.

Observing the nonconformities of many clients, employees and my own experience on the time of attention for the change of endowments and material of intendancy I proposed to do this project where we will find solutions that change the operational and logistic mode to be able to provide a better service.

This project will benefit customers, employees, partners and raise the perspective of continuous improvement of this large company.

Another added benefit is that, if a change in care is implemented and a better quality is given in their garments to the guards, they will save not only time but money.

LEGAL REPRESENTATIVE, PRESIDENT

Name:  this is Mario Alexander

Last name: His last name parra Baena

Age: He is 51 years old.

Nationality:, He is Colombian from itagui antioquia

Profession.  He is Commercial president

Functions: He is in charge of looking for special clients, and grow this great Company.

Interests: Besides being the proprietor of the company what interests him most is that his company has national recognition.

MANAGEMENT

Name : she isa da luz

Last name : she last name Bonilla

Age : she is 46 years old

Nationality : She is from colombiana de bogota Cundinamarca

Profession: business administrator.

Functions. She is the one in charge to close all the businesses that materialize and to manage the resources of the Company

Interest. Among their interests are that the customer is satisfied by the services provided

OPERATING AREA.

Name: this is Diego.

Last name: his last name varela.

Age: he is 45 years old.

Nationality:, He is Colombian from itagui antioquia

Profession: he is operating área.

Functios. He is in charge of the logistics of the vigilantes

Interests: Their interests are to ensure that each position is covered.

ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF.

Name. This is Mateo.

Last name: his last name torres.

Age: he is 45 years old.

Natinality: he is Colombian from bello antioquia

Profession: head of warehouse.

Functions.: He is the custodian of the store of security, where they deliver the business endowments.

Interests: In its activities are always to keep at the disposal of the company the elements required for the services.

OPERATIVE STAFF.

SUPERVISOR 

Name: I am Wilmer.

Last name: my last name is zapata

Age: i am 33 years old.

Nasionality. I am Colombian from bello Antioquia.

Profession: I am supervisor.

Functions. I am in charge of ensuring compliance with the different activities carried out in the field of security.

Interest: Seek harmony between company, client and operational staff

.

SECURITY GUARD

Name: she is Edna.

Last name: his last name castro.

Age she is 40 years old.

Nationality: she is colombian from ibague tolima.

Profession: vigilant.

Functions: Is in charge of the security of the security Company.

Interest. Maintain a good climate of security and commitment.